María Gonzalez has been fishing these waters off Panama City for over three decades. Every December, she knows exactly where to drop her nets—in the cooler patches where sardines gather in thick, silvery clouds. Her grandfather taught her father, who taught her: follow the cold water upwellings, and the fish will follow.
This year, María came back empty-handed day after day. The water stayed warm. The fish vanished. “It’s like the ocean forgot how to breathe,” she told her worried crew, not knowing she was witnessing something that hadn’t happened in four decades.
Scientists studying Panama’s coastal waters are now scrambling to understand why the Panama deep water upwelling—a natural process as dependable as clockwork—simply didn’t happen in 2025.
When Nature’s Calendar Breaks Down
Every year between December and April, Panama’s Pacific coast transforms into one of nature’s most efficient feeding systems. Strong trade winds push warm surface water away from the shore, creating space for cold, nutrient-rich deep water to surge upward.
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This Panama deep water upwelling process feeds everything. Microscopic plants called phytoplankton feast on the nutrients, small fish devour the plants, and bigger predators follow the feast. It’s like a underwater conveyor belt delivering dinner to the entire food chain.
But 2025 told a different story. Satellite images that normally show dramatic temperature drops and green blooms of life showed… nothing. The deep waters stayed put. Surface temperatures remained stubbornly high. The ocean’s annual refresh simply didn’t happen.
“We’ve been monitoring this system since the 1980s, and we’ve never seen anything like this complete failure,” said Dr. Elena Rodriguez, a marine biologist who has spent years studying Central American coastal currents. “It’s not just unusual—it’s unprecedented.”
The Numbers Tell a Troubling Story
Data from research vessels and satellites paint a clear picture of just how different 2025 really was. Here’s what scientists discovered when they compared this year to the historical average:
| Measurement | Historical Average | 2025 Reality | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surface Temperature Drop | 3-5°C cooler | 0.2°C cooler | 95% reduction |
| Chlorophyll Increase | 400% spike | 15% increase | Nearly flat |
| Nutrient Availability | High at surface | Trapped below | System failure |
| Fish Catch Rates | Peak season | Historical low | 80% decline |
The research vessel Eugen Seibold, equipped with advanced sensors, tracked the problem to its source: the trade winds. These normally reliable atmospheric engines weakened dramatically and became chaotic in their patterns.
Scientists identified several key factors that contributed to the Panama deep water upwelling failure:
- Trade wind speeds dropped by 60% compared to normal years
- Wind direction became erratic, changing daily instead of maintaining consistent patterns
- Atmospheric pressure systems shifted, disrupting the usual weather cycles
- Sea surface temperatures stayed 2-3 degrees warmer than expected
- Deep ocean currents remained stable but couldn’t reach the surface
“Think of it like a broken pump,” explained Dr. James Patterson, an oceanographer who has monitored tropical upwelling systems for two decades. “The water is down there, full of nutrients and ready to support life. But without the wind to drive the pump, it just sits there unused.”
Real People Feel the Impact
While scientists debate causes and mechanisms, coastal communities are living with the immediate consequences. Fishing boats that normally return heavy with sardines and mackerel now struggle to fill their holds.
Local fishing cooperatives report catch rates down by 80% during what should have been peak season. Restaurants along the coast have had to import fish from other regions, driving up prices and changing menus that have featured local catches for generations.
But the impact goes beyond economics. Coral reefs that depend on the cooling effect of upwelling waters faced higher temperatures during their most vulnerable period. Marine biologists documented increased coral bleaching events along the Pacific coast.
Even the local climate felt different. Without the usual influx of cooler water, coastal temperatures stayed higher throughout the dry season. Beach communities that typically enjoy natural air conditioning from upwelling zones sweltered through unusually hot months.
“My grandmother always said the ocean takes care of us during the hot season,” shared Carlos Mendez, who runs a small fishing operation near Pedasí. “This year, it felt like the ocean abandoned us.”
Tourism operators noticed changes too. Diving spots known for their vibrant marine life and comfortable water temperatures became noticeably warmer and less active. Whale watching tours, which typically benefit from the upwelling’s rich feeding grounds, reported fewer sightings.
Looking Ahead: Will Normal Return?
The failure of Panama deep water upwelling raises uncomfortable questions about the future. Climate scientists are working to determine whether this was a one-time atmospheric anomaly or a sign of longer-term changes to the region’s ocean patterns.
Early analysis suggests the disruption came from a complex interaction of factors. Changes in global atmospheric circulation patterns may have weakened the trade wind systems that drive upwelling. Ocean temperature patterns influenced by distant weather systems could have played a role.
“We’re dealing with a system we thought we understood, but clearly there are surprises waiting,” noted Dr. Sarah Williams, who studies tropical oceanography. “The question now is whether this was a fluke or the beginning of a new normal.”
Research teams are deploying additional monitoring equipment to track the 2025-2026 season more closely. They want to know if the Panama deep water upwelling will resume its normal pattern or if coastal communities need to prepare for a different future.
For people like María, the uncertainty is the hardest part. Fishing families who have depended on predictable seasonal patterns for generations now face questions they’ve never had to ask before.
FAQs
What exactly is Panama deep water upwelling?
It’s a seasonal process where trade winds push warm surface water away from Panama’s coast, allowing cold, nutrient-rich deep water to rise up and support marine life.
Why did it fail in 2025?
Trade winds weakened dramatically and became erratic, breaking the atmospheric engine that normally drives the upwelling process.
Has this ever happened before?
Not in at least 40 years of recorded observations. This represents the first complete failure of the system since modern monitoring began.
Who is most affected by this change?
Local fishing communities, coral reefs, coastal tourism operators, and anyone who depends on the region’s marine ecosystems for their livelihood.
Will the upwelling return to normal?
Scientists don’t know yet. They’re monitoring the current season closely to determine if this was a one-time event or part of a longer-term shift.
What does this mean for fish populations?
Without upwelling, fish catches dropped by 80% during peak season, as the nutrient-rich conditions that support the food chain were absent.