Marie’s grandmother used to tell stories about rationing during World War II, when every scrap of food mattered and neighbors shared what little they had. “We knew we were all in it together,” the elderly woman would say, clutching her granddaughter’s hand. “Everyone understood what was at stake.”
Today, Marie watches the news from her comfortable apartment in Lyon, seeing reports of distant conflicts while scrolling through social media on her phone. The idea that war could return to European soil feels almost abstract, like something from history books rather than tomorrow’s headlines.
But France’s top military commander thinks Europeans like Marie are living in a dangerous dream. General Fabien Mandon has just delivered one of the bluntest wake-up calls Europe has heard in decades, and his message is unsettling: the continent’s defense illusions are crumbling fast.
When Reality Crashes Into Comfortable Assumptions
Speaking to French senators in Paris, Chief of Defence Staff General Fabien Mandon painted a picture that would make most Europeans deeply uncomfortable. He described a world where the old security guarantees no longer hold, where hostile powers feel emboldened to use force, and where Europe’s defense illusions could prove catastrophically costly.
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“We’re seeing a systematic challenge to everything we thought we knew about European security,” Mandon told lawmakers. “The question isn’t whether we can defend ourselves technically – it’s whether we have the political will to do what’s necessary.”
His assessment focuses squarely on Russia as the primary threat to European security. According to Mandon, the Kremlin leadership now operates without the strategic restraints that once limited major powers. They view Western societies as fundamentally weak and indecisive, gambling that Europeans lack the stomach for prolonged conflict.
The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as Mandon’s primary evidence. What began as expectations of swift military action has devolved into a grinding war of attrition, fought with artillery barrages, missile strikes, and swarms of drones rather than the quick tank advances many anticipated.
The Brutal Math of Modern European Warfare
Mandon’s briefing to senators revealed troubling details about how contemporary warfare actually unfolds on European soil. The romantic notions of surgical strikes and precision operations have given way to something far more primitive and destructive.
Ukrainian forces face a stark demographic reality, trying to compensate for fewer soldiers and less equipment by deploying unmanned systems on an unprecedented scale. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue their methodical advance, gaining ground meter by meter through sheer persistence and firepower.
“What we’re witnessing in Ukraine is a live laboratory of high-intensity warfare in Europe,” Mandon explained. “The lessons are sobering for anyone paying attention.”
Key aspects of this new reality include:
- Massive drone swarms replacing traditional air superiority
- Artillery becoming the dominant battlefield weapon
- Civilian infrastructure as primary military targets
- Information warfare preceding physical attacks
- Supply chain vulnerabilities exposed within weeks
- Traditional alliance structures proving slower than needed
The French general also highlighted how international systems have fundamentally shifted. The United Nations no longer functions as the post-Cold War arbiter many Europeans remember. Peacekeeping missions stall repeatedly, while coalition-building efforts fail to engage the Global South effectively.
| Traditional European Defense Assumptions | Current Strategic Reality |
|---|---|
| NATO Article 5 guarantees automatic response | Political will varies significantly among members |
| Conflicts remain geographically contained | Hybrid warfare targets civilian infrastructure everywhere |
| Diplomatic solutions prevent major wars | Authoritarian powers ignore diplomatic pressure |
| Economic interdependence prevents conflict | Trade relationships weaponized for political goals |
| Technology provides decisive military advantages | Low-cost systems neutralize expensive platforms |
What This Means for Regular Europeans
Mandon’s warning isn’t just military theory – it has direct implications for how Europeans live, work, and plan their futures. The general’s assessment suggests that Europe’s defense illusions could leave ordinary citizens unprepared for scenarios that once seemed impossible.
Energy security represents the most immediate vulnerability. European dependence on imported energy creates leverage points that hostile powers can exploit. Rolling blackouts, heating shortages, and industrial shutdowns become weapons of war without a single shot being fired.
“We’ve built our entire way of life around assumptions of perpetual peace and stability,” noted Dr. Sarah Chen, a defense analyst at the European Policy Institute. “When those assumptions prove false, the adjustment period is painful and expensive.”
Food security follows closely behind energy concerns. Modern European agriculture depends on complex supply chains for fertilizer, fuel, and specialized equipment. Disruptions to these networks can affect food prices and availability within months.
Digital infrastructure presents another layer of vulnerability. Banking systems, communication networks, and government services increasingly depend on technologies that can be disrupted remotely. Cyberattacks can paralyze entire cities without conventional military action.
Perhaps most challenging for European societies is the psychological adjustment required. Generations raised on prosperity and stability must now consider scenarios their grandparents knew intimately: rationing, blackouts, and the possibility of widespread conflict.
The Political Will Problem
Mandon’s most pointed criticism focuses on what he sees as Europe’s reluctance to acknowledge hard truths about defense spending and military preparedness. European defense illusions, he argues, stem partly from decades of underfunding military capabilities while assuming others would handle security threats.
“The technical capacity exists to defend Europe effectively,” Mandon stressed. “What’s missing is the political consensus to make the necessary investments and difficult decisions.”
Defense spending across Europe remains below NATO’s 2% GDP target in most countries. Even where spending meets official targets, much goes to personnel costs and maintenance rather than new capabilities needed for contemporary threats.
Public opinion polling consistently shows Europeans want strong defense but resist the tax increases or social spending cuts required to fund it. This creates a political paradox where leaders promise security without providing the resources to deliver it.
“Politicians face electoral consequences for raising defense spending but face even worse consequences if security threats materialize,” explained Professor Klaus Weber from the Berlin Institute for Strategic Studies. “It’s a classic political trap.”
Mandon’s solution involves what he calls “strategic realism” – accepting that Europe faces genuine military threats and responding accordingly. This means higher defense budgets, closer military integration, and public education about security challenges.
The general also emphasized industrial capacity. Europe’s defense industries have atrophied after decades of peace dividends and budget cuts. Rebuilding manufacturing capacity for weapons, ammunition, and military equipment requires years of sustained investment.
Beyond the Comfort Zone
General Mandon’s message to European leaders is ultimately about choices. Continuing with current approaches means accepting higher risks and potential catastrophic consequences. Changing course requires political courage and public support for uncomfortable adjustments.
Some European nations are already moving beyond traditional defense illusions. Poland has dramatically increased military spending and purchased advanced weapons systems. The Baltic states maintain heightened readiness levels and invest heavily in territorial defense.
“The countries closest to potential threats take these warnings most seriously,” observed Dr. Anna Kowalski from the Warsaw Security Forum. “Distance from danger often correlates with complacency about defense needs.”
For average Europeans, Mandon’s assessment suggests the need for personal preparedness alongside national-level changes. Emergency supplies, communication plans, and basic resilience measures become more relevant when traditional security assumptions no longer hold.
The general’s broader point resonates beyond military circles: Europe’s defense illusions reflect deeper assumptions about international stability that may no longer apply. Adapting to new realities requires honest assessment of threats, capabilities, and political will.
FAQs
Who is General Fabien Mandon and why should Europeans listen to him?
General Mandon serves as France’s Chief of Defence Staff, making him the country’s top military officer responsible for strategic planning and threat assessment.
What are the main defense illusions Mandon identifies in Europe?
He points to assumptions that diplomatic solutions will prevent major wars, that NATO guarantees automatic protection, and that economic interdependence makes conflict impossible.
How does the Ukraine war relate to European defense planning?
Mandon views Ukraine as a “live laboratory” showing how modern high-intensity warfare actually unfolds in Europe, with lessons about drone warfare, artillery dominance, and infrastructure targeting.
What specific changes does Mandon recommend for European defense?
He advocates for increased defense spending, closer military integration among European nations, and rebuilding defense industrial capacity that has declined during peacetime.
How might these security concerns affect ordinary European citizens?
Potential impacts include energy shortages, food supply disruptions, cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure, and the need for personal emergency preparedness.
Are other European military leaders expressing similar concerns?
Yes, defense officials across Europe, particularly in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, have issued comparable warnings about evolving security threats and preparedness gaps.