Captain Andrzej Kowalski had been watching his submarine slowly rust away for three years. Every morning, he’d walk past the ORP Orzeł at Gdynia port, seeing the patches of corrosion spreading across her Soviet-built hull like age spots on an old friend’s hands. The boat had served Poland faithfully since the 1980s, but everyone knew her time was running out.
“We used to joke that she’d sink herself before the enemy got a chance,” Kowalski told his crew one gray February morning. Nobody laughed anymore. With Russian naval activity increasing in the Baltic Sea and underwater cables being mysteriously damaged, Poland couldn’t afford to have its submarine fleet die of old age.
That’s exactly why Warsaw’s decision in the Orka programme feels so significant today. After years of delays and political wrangling, Poland has finally chosen its underwater future – and it’s Swedish, not French.
Sweden Wins the Battle Beneath the Waves
The Orka programme represents Poland’s most critical naval decision in decades. After evaluating offers from six different countries, Warsaw selected Saab’s A26 Blekinge-class submarine design, effectively sidelining France’s Naval Group and their Scorpène-class proposal.
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This wasn’t just about choosing the best submarine on paper. Poland needed boats that could operate effectively in the Baltic Sea’s unique conditions – shallow waters, low salinity, and increasingly complex acoustic environments where every sound matters.
“The A26 was designed specifically for Baltic conditions from day one,” explains maritime defense analyst Lars Eriksson. “While other submarines excel in deep ocean warfare, Saab built theirs for the kind of cat-and-mouse games that happen in our neighborhood.”
The Swedish design offers several advantages that proved decisive. The A26 features air-independent propulsion, allowing it to stay submerged for weeks without surfacing. Its modular design means Poland can customize weapons systems and sensors based on evolving threats. Most importantly, it’s already proven in Baltic waters through Sweden’s own operations.
What Poland Gets From This Deal
The Orka programme isn’t just about buying submarines – it’s about building industrial capabilities and strengthening alliances. Here’s what Warsaw secured through this partnership:
| Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Submarines | 3 A26 Blekinge-class boats with option for more |
| Technology Transfer | Partial local assembly and maintenance capabilities |
| Timeline | First boat delivery expected by 2035 |
| Industrial Cooperation | Polish shipyards involved in construction process |
| Training Package | Comprehensive crew and technician preparation |
The deal includes significant technology transfer agreements. Polish shipyards will participate in the construction process, giving the country’s maritime industry valuable experience with modern submarine technology. This knowledge base could prove crucial for future naval projects and exports.
“Poland isn’t just buying fish – they’re learning how to fish,” notes defense procurement specialist Maria Novak. “The technology transfer component ensures they’re building domestic expertise alongside their submarine fleet.”
Key features of the A26 design include:
- Advanced air-independent propulsion system for extended underwater operations
- Modular weapon systems accommodating torpedoes, mines, and cruise missiles
- State-of-the-art sonar and electronic warfare capabilities
- Reduced acoustic signature for stealth operations
- Flexible mission profiles from surveillance to special operations support
France Gets Left in the Cold
Naval Group’s exclusion from the Orka programme represents a significant diplomatic and commercial setback for France. The company’s Scorpène-class submarines have found success in international markets, with sales to countries like India, Brazil, and Australia.
However, several factors worked against the French offer. The Scorpène design, while capable, was originally developed for warmer, deeper waters. Adapting it for Baltic conditions would have required extensive modifications, potentially increasing costs and delivery times.
Political considerations also played a role. Poland has been strengthening ties with Nordic countries, viewing them as more reliable partners in deterring Russian aggression. Sweden’s NATO membership application and shared Baltic security concerns created natural synergies that France couldn’t match.
“Sometimes geography trumps technology,” observes former Polish naval officer Captain Tomasz Wiśniewski. “Sweden understands our operational environment because they’ve been dealing with the same challenges for decades.”
The French submarine industry won’t disappear from European waters, but this loss highlights the importance of regional partnerships in modern defense procurement. Countries increasingly prefer suppliers who share similar strategic challenges and geographic constraints.
Ripple Effects Across European Defense
Poland’s choice reverberates far beyond submarine construction. The decision strengthens Nordic-Central European defense cooperation while potentially affecting France’s position in Eastern European markets.
For Sweden, the Orka programme validates their submarine technology and opens doors to additional exports. Other Baltic nations watching Poland’s experience may consider similar purchases, creating a regional submarine ecosystem around Swedish technology.
NATO’s underwater capabilities also receive a boost. Three modern submarines operating in the Baltic Sea will significantly enhance alliance surveillance and deterrence capabilities in a region where Russian submarine activity has increased markedly since 2022.
The deal impacts European defense industrial cooperation too. While France has pushed for greater European defense integration, Poland’s choice suggests that operational effectiveness and regional partnerships often outweigh broader political considerations in major procurement decisions.
“Poland is building the submarine force it needs, not the one Brussels might prefer,” explains defense analyst Jan Kowalski. “That pragmatic approach reflects how smaller NATO members are thinking about defense procurement in an era of renewed great power competition.”
The timeline for delivery – with the first submarine expected around 2035 – might seem long, but submarine construction requires years of specialized work. Polish crews will begin training on Swedish boats well before their own submarines arrive, ensuring operational readiness from day one.
FAQs
Why did Poland choose Swedish submarines over French ones?
Sweden’s A26 design was specifically built for Baltic Sea conditions, while France’s Scorpène required extensive modifications for shallow, low-salinity waters.
How many submarines will Poland receive through the Orka programme?
Poland will initially receive three A26 Blekinge-class submarines, with options to order additional boats if needed.
When will Poland’s new submarines be operational?
The first submarine is expected to be delivered around 2035, with all three boats operational by the early 2040s.
What happens to Poland’s current submarine?
The aging ORP Orzeł will likely be decommissioned once the new Swedish-built submarines become operational.
Will Polish workers help build these submarines?
Yes, the deal includes significant technology transfer and industrial cooperation, with Polish shipyards participating in the construction process.
How does this decision affect NATO’s Baltic Sea strategy?
Three modern submarines will significantly enhance NATO’s underwater surveillance and deterrence capabilities in a region of growing strategic importance.